By RALPH D. RUSSO
AP College Football Writer

Virtually every time the Pulaski Academy Bruins face fourth
down, the prep school team from Little Rock, Ark., goes for it.
No matter the distance.

And here's the thing - the strategy works.

Coach Kevin Kelley and his Bruins won the state championship in
Arkansas' third-largest classification last season and did not
punt. This year, they are 7-2 with one punt - the other team was
so surprised the ball went 51 yards with no return.

"I'm really a contrarian thinker. When everybody thinks
something is going to happen it often times doesn't," Kelley
said in a recent phone interview with the AP. "It's the same in
football. When everybody thinks you should do something, maybe
there's a better way."

The vast majority of college coaches wouldn't think for a second
about bagging the kicking game (Pulaski has pretty much stopped
trying field goals, too) and playing offense with all four
downs, all the time.

"I'd get run out of Dodge," said Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis,
who has been second-guessed for more than one fourth-down call.

Yet at least a couple of coaches were intrigued by the idea when
they were told about the way Kelley coaches and the data behind
his decision.

Texas Tech coach Mike Leach, who pretty much lives his life
outside the box, said Kelley might be on to something.

"It's an interesting idea," Leach said. "Statistically, there's
definitely some validity to it."

The NCAA has only been keeping statistics for fourth-down
conversions since 2005 and the numbers don't reflect a
significant change of philosophy by coaches on fourth-down
during those seasons. Fourth down generally means kick, whether
that's a field goal or punt.

But in this decade when offenses are better than ever - with
yards and points piling up at record-breaking levels - coaches
might want to rethink the same ol' way of playing.

Kelley said the inspiration for his unorthodox, though he will
tell you totally sound, strategy was from a documentary he
stumbled across on television a few years back.

Between the data he jotted down from the show and what he has
collected from his own team's games over the years, he
determined going for it on fourth down every time isn't risky at
all. In fact, according to his numbers, he is playing the
percentages - even in the most extreme circumstances.

Let's take an example.

According to his data, a team that takes over the ball at its
opponent's 10 or closer has a 92 percent chance of scoring a
touchdown. A team that gains possession between its opponent's
40-yard line and its 31 has a 77 percent chance of scoring a
touchdown.

So, Kelley figures, even if the Bruins fail to convert, he is
only increasing his opponents' chances of scoring a TD by 15
percentage points more than if his team got off a decent punt.
So why not go for it on fourth-and-8 from your own 6?

And, it should be noted, the Bruins convert about 50 percent of
the time.

While Kelley's approach is extreme, he is not the only one with
statistics that suggest there's too much kicking going on in
football.

A study by University of California-Berkeley economist David
Romer that came out in 2005 determined NFL coaches should go for
it on fourth down far more often than they do.

For most coaches, the decision on whether to go for it on fourth
down has more to do with feel for the game - and job security -
than stats.

"Often, it's simply a gut decision," Michigan State coach Mark
Dantonio said. "Is the timing right and do you have the
confidence in your offense to execute the play against the
defense that's called?"

Score. Field position. Time on the clock. How well the defense
is playing. How well the offense is playing. The weather. All of
these get factored in when coaches decide whether to go or kick.

"To me, it's a statistic, a position, a feel that gives a coach
the, 'This is the right time to do this,"' LSU coach Les Miles
said.

Miles earned a reputation as a swashbuckling gambler after his
Tigers converted five fourth downs in a come-from-behind victory
against Florida during their national championship season of
2007.

The perception was not backed by stats. While LSU led the nation
in fourth-down conversion rate in '07 (81.3 percent), the
Tigers' went on fourth down 16 times - which ranked in the lower
third among 119 major college teams.

Miles also said he'd be interested in learning more about
Kelley's research.

He also might be interested to find out that Kelley believes
abandoning the kicking game has given his team a strategic and
psychological advantage.

Because Pulaski Academy's offense is always playing with four
downs, it drastically alters play calling for him - third-and-9
is not automatically a passing down - and his opponent -
third-and-9 does not automatically mean sending in an extra
defensive back.

And while a crucial fourth-down play can raise the heart rates
of most players, for Kelley's guys it's just another play.

"There's no difference to them because they are used to it," he
said. "The other team does get more excited."

And more deflated when the Bruins, whose game Friday night
against Little Rock Christian will be televised by ESPNU, do
convert.

Kelley said that on drives during which his team converts a
fourth down, the Bruins score 84 percent of the time.

"I need to go talk to that guy because he's definitely on to
something," Leach said. "There are plenty of statistical things
whereas coaches, myself included, we're caught up in the good
ol' days to the point that there's some changes and things that
can be made to just be better and improve. Even if you don't go
for what he's doing 100 percent, there's definitely something
I'm sure that I can learn from him."

---=

Associated Press writers Betsy Blaney in Lubbock, Texas, Tom
Coyne in South Bend, Ind., Brett Martel in Baton Rouge, La., and
Tim Martin in East Lansing, Mich., Eric Olson in Lincoln, Neb.,
contributed to this report.